KEYTAKEAWAYS
- Solana ETF Approval Probability on Polymarket Reaches 85% for 2025
- Japan’s Financial Services Agency Orders Apple and Google to Remove Unregistered Crypto Exchanges
- This Market Downturn Feels Worse Than the FTX Collapse
CONTENT
1. SOLANA ETF APPROVAL PROBABILITY ON POLYMARKET REACHES 85% FOR 2025
According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Solana ETF being approved in 2025 has risen to 85%, reflecting the market’s optimistic expectations for regulatory approval. Currently, the total trading volume for this prediction contract is $65,739.
(Source: Polymarket)
Analysis
The approval of Solana ETF ultimately depends on the attitude of U.S. regulators. With the successful launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the market is hopeful for approval of ETFs for other major cryptocurrencies. As a top-tier public chain project by market cap, Solana has gained increasing attention from institutional investors, especially with the strong performance of the SOL price in recent months, attracting a large influx of funds.
However, while an 85% probability seems high, ETF approval is not a simple probability game. The SEC remains cautious regarding most cryptocurrencies, particularly assets outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and they may face more stringent scrutiny. Although market expectations are optimistic, the final outcome will still depend on regulatory developments and the stance of regulators.
2. JAPAN’S FINANCIAL SERVICES AGENCY ORDERS APPLE AND GOOGLE TO REMOVE UNREGISTERED CRYPTO EXCHANGES
According to Nikkei, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) has ordered Apple and Google to remove the apps of five unregistered overseas cryptocurrency exchanges, including Bybit and MEXC. Apple has already complied and removed the relevant apps from the App Store.
This is the first time the Japanese regulators have taken the measure of ordering an app removal for unregistered exchanges, after multiple warnings went unheeded.
Analysis
Japan has always taken a strict approach toward cryptocurrency exchanges, requiring all exchanges serving Japanese users to register with the FSA. The direct order to remove apps indicates a tougher stance from Japanese regulators and could serve as a regulatory example for other countries.
For exchanges, this is undoubtedly a challenge. Although users can still access the exchanges via their web versions, the removal of the apps may affect user growth and convenience. Going forward, unregistered exchanges that wish to continue operating in Japan may need to accelerate their compliance processes or face further regulatory pressure.
3. THIS MARKET DOWNTURN FEELS WORSE THAN THE FTX COLLAPSE
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher posted on X that this market downturn feels more painful than the FTX collapse in 2022. He pointed out that during the FTX collapse, the market was already in a state of despair, and investors had become numb to the downturn.
However, this time it’s different—market sentiment was initially optimistic, with many expecting altcoins to enter a bull market, only to be met with a sharp decline. For many, losing hope feels worse than losing money.
Analysis
Miles’ view resonates with many investors’ feelings. During the FTX collapse in 2022, the market was already in a bear market, and investors had largely given up, so there wasn’t as much of an emotional impact. This time, however, market sentiment was more positive, with many expecting the bull market to begin, only to face a harsh downturn. The emotional contrast is much greater.
On the other hand, this level of pessimism could signal that the market is nearing a bottom. Historically, markets often reverse when sentiment is extremely negative and peak when optimism is overly high. For long-term investors, this might be an opportunity to reassess the market and look for new opportunities.
Read More：
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