KEYTAKEAWAYS
- Fed's January meeting minutes will provide crucial insights into rate cut timing, with market expectations now shifting toward fewer cuts in 2024.
- Elon Musk's Grok 3 AI model launch marks a significant advancement in AI competition, featuring chain-of-thought reasoning and synthetic data training.
- Multiple Fed officials' speeches throughout the week, including Harker, Bowman, and Daly, will offer additional perspectives on monetary policy direction.
CONTENT
WEEKLY NEWS OVERVIEW
Monday, February 19 (PT)
• 06:30 AM Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (2026 FOMC voter) speaks
• 07:20 AM Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks
Tuesday, February 20 (PT)
• 08:00 PM (Feb 19, PT) Elon Musk releases Grok 3 AI model
• 05:30 AM U.S. February New York Fed Manufacturing Index
• 07:20 AM San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (2027 FOMC voter) speaks
Wednesday, February 21 (PT)
(No U.S.-related events)
Thursday, February 22 (PT)
• 11:00 AM (Feb 21, PT) FOMC releases minutes of the January monetary policy meeting
• 05:30 AM U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (for the week ending Feb 15), February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
• 07:00 AM U.S. January Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) MoM
Friday, February 23 (PT)
• 08:00 AM (Feb 22, PT) U.S. Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory (for the week ending Feb 14)
• 09:05 AM (Feb 22, PT) St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (2025 FOMC voter) speaks at the New York Economic Club
• 06:35 AM Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (2025 FOMC voter) speaks
• 06:45 AM U.S. February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Preliminary, Services PMI Preliminary
• 07:00 AM U.S. February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final, One-Year Inflation Expectations Final
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK
FOMC Releases January Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January policy meeting on Wednesday, where policymakers kept borrowing costs unchanged. Investors will closely examine the minutes for clues on the future path of interest rate cuts.
During his congressional testimony last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that there is no urgency for rate cuts and confirmed that Trump has no legal authority to fire Fed governors. Powell also noted that the Fed might adjust interest rates in response to tariffs, and CPI data suggests more efforts are needed to bring down inflation. He emphasized that while the Fed is close to but has not yet achieved its inflation target, the central bank will not overreact to one or two favorable data points. Powell hinted that rates will remain elevated for some time, stating that the Fed wants to maintain restrictive policy for now.
Currently, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady for an extended period, with only one 25-basis-point rate cut this year — a reduction from previous expectations of at least two cuts. The timing of the first cut has also been pushed back from September to December.
Additionally, investors will hear from multiple Fed officials this week, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Governor Christopher Waller, Governor Michelle Bowman, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Elon Musk to Announce the Launch of Grok 3 AI Model
The rise of DeepSeek has intensified competition in the AI industry, pushing the release of GPT-5 and now forcing the early arrival of Grok 3.
On February 16, Elon Musk announced on social media platform X that the Grok 3 AI model will be released at 8 PM Pacific Time on Monday (12 PM Beijing Time on Tuesday), featuring a live demonstration. He described it as “the smartest AI on Earth.” Musk added that he would be offline throughout the weekend as he and his team continue fine-tuning the final product.
Recently, at the 12th World Government Summit in Dubai, Musk stated that “In testing, Grok 3 has outperformed any publicly released product we know of. We are in the final stages, and Grok 3 will be launched within one to two weeks.”
Grok 3 is developed by Musk’s AI company xAI and is expected to introduce “chain-of-thought” reasoning, allowing it to process complex tasks step by step, similar to human cognition. Musk also highlighted that xAI is trained using synthetic data, which enables it to reflect on and correct its mistakes for greater logical consistency.
These two key events—the Fed’s meeting minutes release and the launch of Grok 3—will be closely watched by investors and AI enthusiasts alike.
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