KEYTAKEAWAYS
- As the 2024 Bitcoin halving approaches, expert opinions are sharply divided, with some forecasting a bull market resurgence and others anticipating further declines due to ongoing economic pressures.
- After an initial bearish stance, Arthur Hayes has turned optimistic, predicting a potential market upswing following the U.S. tax season and adjustments in Federal Reserve policies.
- Prominent figures like GCR and Chris Burniske see the market’s downturn as an opportunity to buy, while institutions like 10x Research are selling off, citing fears of a significant correction.
CONTENT
Bitcoin halving 2024 predictions clash! Experts like Arthur Hayes, GCR, and Chris Burniske see a bull market ahead, while others warn of a correction. Get the inside scoop on both sides.
INTRODUCTION
As the Bitcoin halving draws near, the market has completed a major purge of long positions over the past weekend. Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, who previously had a bearish outlook for April, has now adopted a bullish stance, though some still believe the true market bottom has yet to be reached.
Related articles:
- Bitcoin Halving 2024: Will It Be Different From the Previous Three?
- Bitcoin Halving 2024 Introduction- How Can We Profit from It?
The fourth Bitcoin halving is only a few days away, yet prominent influencers are divided on their forecasts for the market’s future.
Many in the bullish camp believe the worst is over; neither the unexpectedly high Consumer Price Index (CPI) nor the delay in interest rate cuts has hindered Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Recent adjustments were primarily due to liquidity being temporarily drained on tax day. Conversely, those bearish argue that unexpected and sustained inflation has left risky assets teetering on the edge of a significant correction.
Below, we detail the key proponents and their views from both the bullish and bearish sides, aiming to aid your decision-making in the upcoming market conditions.
BITCOIN HALVING 2024 PREDICTION: BULLS CHARGE AHEAD!
Arthur Hayes’ Bitcoin Halving 2024 Prediction: Bitcoin Bottom Hit! Time to Buy and Hold
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and one of the market’s most influential figures, had anticipated that U.S. tax season (with April 15 as the deadline), continued balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, and the anticipated Bitcoin halving on April 20 might lead to a short-term oversold market and potential weakness. However, starting May 1, as the Fed slows its balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury deploys funds to stimulate the market, a new crypto bull market is expected to emerge.
After several days of sharp declines, Arthur has shifted to a bullish stance.
On April 15, Arthur stated on platform X:
That was the dip. Now we rip.
What are we buying on the rebound fam? pic.twitter.com/4NKPytU5d4
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 14, 2024
Then on April 16, Arthur added:
$BTC and $GOLD in lockstep until … wknd b4 April 15th tax payments due in US.
But Israel / Iran war tension rose the same wknd, and $BTC dumped while $GOLD was closed.$GOLD opens unch on Mon, while $BTC dipped again. $BTC still works, chads just gotta pay their taxes. pic.twitter.com/IbWyaEa4ye
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 16, 2024
Matt Hougan’s Bitcoin Halving 2024 Prediction: Minor Interest Rates Are of Little Concern!
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise and a known Bitcoin enthusiast on social media, has always been vocal about his bullish stance.
Despite Bitcoin’s drop last week due to unexpectedly high CPI and delayed rate cut expectations, Hougan commented that the higher-than-expected CPI will not impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. The potential Fed rate cut of 25 basis points in June is a minor factor. Instead, ETF flows and rising deficits, which are more significant, align favorably for Bitcoin.
I don’t believe this move fading the higher-than-expected CPI. Whether the Fed cut rates 25bps in June or not isn’t the long-term driver of bitcoin prices right now. It’s a marginal factor.
ETF flows + rising deficits matter more, and they are lining up very well for bitcoin.
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) April 10, 2024
Chris Burniske’s Bitcoin Halving 2024 Prediction: Why Liquidate Now???
Chris Burniske, former crypto lead at ARK Invest and now a partner at Placeholder VC, had accurately predicted significant market pullbacks following ETF approvals.
Following this market downturn, Burniske has also expressed multiple bullish sentiments.
On April 16, Burniske stated:
Significant fear in the market, while prices find footing in reasonable ranges and excesses get flushed, is the setup for eventually going higher 🫡
— Chris Burniske (@cburniske) April 16, 2024
Later, Burniske shared a post about “those who liquidate just four days before the halving” accompanied by an image of a whale swallowing, possibly indicating that crypto whales are capitalizing on the panic sales of retail investors at low prices.
https://t.co/vsAzNjEGA1 pic.twitter.com/k2RvZ2NFKH
— Chris Burniske (@cburniske) April 16, 2024
GCR’s Bitcoin Halving 2024 Prediction: Stay Strong, Don’t Sell
After a sharp decline in the early hours of April 14, legendary trader GCR (known for previously shorting DOGE, SHIBA, and LUNA at their peaks) vocally turned bullish. This sentiment has attracted over 9 million views and 58,000 likes on platform X.
If you’ve been sidelined, believe this is a good opportunity to scale into high conviction tokens
If you’re fully invested, just survive, hold your spot positions and do not capitulate
Someone once said, liquidations are a forced transfer of wealth from traders who need…
— GCR (@GCRClassic) April 13, 2024
BITCOIN HALVING 2024 PREDICTION: BEARISH VOICES
Compared to the bullish camp, the bearish side has fewer vocal supporters. Arthur, initially bearish in April, could have been their leading figure, but with his shift to a bullish view, the bears need a new figurehead.
On April 16, the notable institution 10x Research, which last week projected an 80,000 target, suddenly announced, “We sold everything last night,” sparking extensive discussions on social media.
We Sold Everything Last Night ->
👇1-11) Our growing concern is that risk assets (stocks and crypto) are teetering on the edge of a significant price correction (see yesterday’s report). The primary trigger is the unexpected and persistent inflation. With the bond market now… pic.twitter.com/EvHyvw1du5
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) April 16, 2024
Explaining their rationale for liquidation, 10x Research noted:
- We are increasingly concerned that risky assets, both stocks and cryptocurrencies, are at a critical juncture, potentially facing significant price corrections. The main trigger is unexpectedly persistent inflation, with current bond market forecasts indicating fewer than three rate cuts, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has exceeded 4.50%, signaling a potential turning point for risky assets.
- Trading is a continuous game filled with opportunities. The key to successful trading is to continuously analyze the market and seize favorable opportunities. Sometimes, advocating increased risk for greater returns is advisable, while at other times, preserving capital becomes the priority, allowing you to seize opportunities when risk levels are lower.
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