KEYTAKEAWAYS
- Fed rate cut odds for May rise to 39.8%, but inflation and tariff fears may delay action, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index drops to 31, showing rising fear as Bitcoin dips below $80K and trading volumes shrink across themarket.
- Launchpad platform auto.fun may launch this week, offering creators direct earnings from content and tokens, with a focus on transparency and community over speculation.
CONTENT
FED RATE CUT ODDS FOR MAY RISE TO 39.8%
On April 13, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 39.8% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May. The chance of keeping rates unchanged is 60.2%.
Analysis:
The market is worried more about inflation and new tariffs than economic slowdown. If the March CPI comes in at 2.7% or higher, the chance of no rate cut may increase to 70%, pushing the first cut to June.
This could put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, which might fall to around $75,000. However, if unemployment data turns out worse than expected, the chance of a May cut might increase again.
CRYPTO FEAR & GREED INDEX DROPS TO 31
On April 14, data from Alternative.me shows the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 31, from 45 the day before. This means that fear is increasing in the market.
Analysis:
The low score reflects concerns about tariffs, inflation, and high interest rates. Two major factors in this drop are Bitcoin falling below $80,000 and lower trading volume.
LAUNCHPAD PLATFORM AUTO.FUN MAY LAUNCH THIS WEEK
On April 14, ai16z founder Shaw posted on X that a new Launchpad platform called auto.fun may launch this week. The platform will allow creators to earn directly from content and token launches.
Communities can also help launch content or create CTO (Content Token Offering) tokens based on others’ work. The platform promotes a “no hype, just fun” attitude and wants to build a transparent, decentralized place for creators and communities.
Analysis:
auto.fun targets the growing Web3 creator economy. CTOs mix content and blockchain in a new way. Compared to platforms like Binance Launchpad (too exclusive) or Pump.fun (too speculative), auto.fun is more accessible to everyday creators and real communities.
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