KEYTAKEAWAYS
- Trump plans a 25% tariff on imported cars starting Apr. 2, with possible market shocks if combined with VAT and sector-specific tariffs.
- March U.S. job growth likely slowed; non-farm payrolls expected to fall, while ADP data shows a possible disconnect.
- Fed Chair Powell will speak post-jobs report, with markets eyeing his stance on tariffs, inflation, and past “temporary” inflation comments.
CONTENT
WEEKLY ECONOMIC & TOKEN UNLOCK EVENTS (April 1-5, 2025, GMT-4)
Sunday, March 31, 2025
- 08:00 AM: 🔓 OP Token Unlock – 31.34M OP unlocked (1.93% of supply, ~$23.8M)
Tuesday, April 1, 2025
- 08:00 AM: 🔓 SUI Token Unlock – 64.19M SUI (2.03% of supply, ~$152M)
- 08:00 AM: 🔓 DYDX Token Unlock – 8.33M DYDX (1.09% of supply, ~$5.4M)
- 08:00 AM: 🔓 ZETA Token Unlock – 44.26M ZETA (6.05% of supply, ~$13.2M)
- 09:45 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI (March)
- 10:00 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (March)
- 10:00 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (February)
Wednesday, April 2, 2025
- 03:00 PM: 🔓 ENA Token Unlock – 40.63M ENA (0.77% of supply, ~$15M)
- 08:15 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Employment Change (March)
- 10:30 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change
- Trump Announces Tariff Plans: 🇺🇸 Donald Trump stated plans to implement reciprocal tariffs
Thursday, April 3, 2025
- 08:00 AM: 🔓 BIGTIME Token Unlock – 333M BIGTIME (18.44% of supply, ~$16.7M)
- 07:30 PM: 🔓 W Token Unlock – 1.39B W (47.4% of supply, ~$117M)
- 08:30 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
- 09:45 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. Markit Services PMI (March)
- 10:00 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. ISM Services PMI (March)
Friday, April 4, 2025
- 08:30 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. Average Hourly Earnings MoM (March)
- 08:30 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (March)
- 08:30 AM: 🇺🇸 U.S. Unemployment Rate (March)
- 11:25 AM: 🎙️ U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK
Trump Announces Tariff Plans
On March 26, Trump signed a statement at the White House to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars. The new policy will take effect on April 2. However, he did not share more details or say whether the tariff will apply to all imported cars. Tariffs on agricultural products will also begin on April 2.
Regarding the market’s reaction to this “liberation day,” Citigroup outlined three possible scenarios in its latest report.
- If only reciprocal tariffs are applied, the market impact may be limited.
- If reciprocal tariffs are combined with a value-added tax (VAT), the US dollar index could rise by 50–100 basis points, and global stock markets may fall.
- If reciprocal tariffs, VAT, and industry-specific tariffs are all included, the market could react more strongly.
Analysts warn that US stocks are more likely to go down than up. Some believe future tariff moves and possible retaliation will be key to watch.
US March Jobs Report Likely to Show Slower Growth
The US March non-farm payroll (NFP) report will be released this Friday. According to Bloomberg data, the market expects:
- 135,000 new jobs in March, down from 151,000 in February.
- Average hourly earnings are expected to grow 3.9% year-over-year, slightly lower than the previous 4%.
- Monthly wage growth is expected to stay at 0.3%.
- The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.
Two days before the NFP report, the ADP jobs data (often seen as a preview) will be released. The forecast is for 119,000 new jobs, much higher than the previous 77,000. Investors will watch closely to see if ADP and NFP numbers show a big difference.
Fed Chair Powell to Speak After Jobs Report
Three hours after the NFP report is released, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech. Markets are watching for his views on the US economy, inflation, and how Trump’s tariff plans could affect both.
Last week, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Powell said any price increases caused by Trump’s tariff policies are likely to be temporary. However, many still remember how in 2021 he said inflation was “transitory,” which later turned out to be a costly mistake.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
This week, markets will be closely watching both macroeconomic data and key token unlock events. The most notable developments include Trump’s new tariff policies, which could impact global markets depending on the extent of their implementation.
Meanwhile, the US labor market data will provide further clues about the economy’s strength, with the ADP report on Wednesday and the critical Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will also be a major focus, as investors look for insights on interest rate policy and inflation.
On the crypto side, several significant token unlocks—such as SUI, BIGTIME, and W—could introduce selling pressure. Investors will be watching how these unlocks affect token prices and market sentiment. With multiple economic catalysts and policy shifts on the horizon, this week could bring heightened volatility across both traditional and crypto markets.
Also Read：
Crypto Weekly Outlook (3/24-3/30)｜PCE Inflation Data
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